Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Two Further Thoughts on Rafah: particularly the negotiations

 1. There was never going to be a ceasefire agreement, the negotiations were always going to break down. That is Hamas's strategy. The strategic gambit is to bait Israel into offering the maximum number of concessions, then reject them at the last minute as a means of provoking Israel into the maximum possible assault on Rafah and bait Biden into sympathy with Israel's point of view.

Until a significant portion of the world stops making Israel shoulder 100% of the blame and pressures Hamas in the way they pressure Israel, the slaughter will continue.

2. A lot of people are going to say that it's Israel who walked away from the table. That's technically true, but an Egyptian official has already leaked that it was actually Hamas who deliberately blew up the deal. Let's face it, both sides of this table are negotiating in bad faith, and both sides want the Rafah invasion to happen, whether now or in six weeks. The truth, of course, is a much more complicated picture, and you won't get at it unless you're willing to put in the work to see it in the round.

Which everybody is always willing to do when it comes to this conflict...


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